Albany, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

592
FXUS61 KALY 061049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
649 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After a clear and cool start to the day, clouds will
increase this afternoon as the next storm system starts to approach.
There will be a chance for some passing showers and even a
thunderstorm tonight as a cold front moves through the area.  Behind
this front, cooler air will move into the region during the upcoming
week, although it will continue to remain dry for most of the time.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 649 AM EDT...Surface high pressure (around 1023 mb) is
located over western New England. IR satellite imagery shows
clear skies over the region, although patchy fog has formed in
river valleys and near bodies of water thanks to the good
radiational cooling in place.

It will be a cool start to the day. Patchy fog may linger in
some spots till mid-morning or so, otherwise, skies will start
the day mostly clear with the high pressure nearby. Skies will
continue to remain fairly sunny for a good part of the day. Some
high clouds may start to increase for the late afternoon hours,
otherwise, it should be fairly sunny through the entire day.
High pressure will slowly drift eastward through the day, with
the shortwave ridge axis shifting eastward as well. High
pressure will eventually pass off the coast of New England by
later this afternoon.

Highs today will be in the upper 60s to low 70s in valley areas,
with low to mid 60s across the high terrain. This will make for
yet another mild and comfortable early October day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level shortwave and associated surface cold front will
be approaching the area for tonight. This system will have more
moisture and slightly stronger dynamics compared to the last few
systems to impact the region. CAMs suggest a line of showers
will be moving west to east across the entire for tonight,
beginning as early as 8 pm across northwestern areas. There may
be some elevated instability as well, so can`t rule out a rumble
of thunder, but the nocturnal timing of the boundary should
prevent any surface-based instability and no strong winds are
expected to be pulled down to the surface with this activity for
tonight. Most spots should see a quick tenth to third of an inch
of rainfall, with locally up to a half inch. With the recent dry
weather, this rainfall is much needed and no hydro issues are
expected. Skies should be fairly cloudy through the entire
night, although some clearing may start to occur towards
daybreak Monday. Lows will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s, with
the coolest temps in northwestern areas.

A few showers along the front may linger into the start of the
day on Monday for eastern areas, but most of the frontal precip
should be done. Our area will be behind the departing shortwave
for Monday, but still ahead of the main upper level low over
Ontario and the upper Great Lakes. As a result, it will be
slightly cooler, but still fairly mild, with daytime temps well
into the 60s. A few additional light showers are possible
Monday afternoon for northwestern areas due to the approaching
cyclonic flow and moisture off the Great Lakes, but most areas
will be staying dry with a partly sunny sky.

Cooler air will start arriving for Monday night with a partly
cloudy sky. Lows will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s for most,
although some mid 30s are possible in the Adirondacks. Still
looks just mild enough to avoid frost in any areas with the
growing season still ongoing, but it may be close.

Large upper level low will be passing by to the north for
Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will make for cool temps and
some passing clouds, but limited moisture should keep it fairly
dry. A spotty light shower is possible for far northern and
western areas thanks to lake effect or upslope, but most areas
will be staying dry with a partly to mostly cloudy sky. Temps on
Tuesday will only reach the 50s for most areas (some low to mid
60s in the immediate Hudson Valley). Overnight lows will be in
the mid 30s to low 40s and some frost will be possible within
the high terrain and outlying areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Rain chances for locations west and north of Albany Wednesday (15-
45%)

- Crisp autumn mornings in store through the end of the work week

- Dry and breezy conditions Wednesday night into the end of next week

Discussion:

Latest forecast ensemble model guidance is in remarkably good
agreement for upper level troughing to continue into Wednesday.
Unsettled weather conditions across the western Adirondacks into the
Lake George-Saratoga and Mohawk Valley region in the form of
scattered rain showers has 15 to 45 percent chances of occurring
Wednesday afternoon. Elsewhere, locations are favored to remain dry,
but breezy as the upper level trough moves east and surface winds
can reach between 15 and 25 mph Wednesday and Thursday afternoon.
Surface high pressure and upper level ridging is currently favored
by ensemble forecast models to build back into the Northeast
Wednesday night into Thursday and continue through Saturday.

National Blend of Models (NBM) 4.2 latest probabilistic data
suggests Thursday morning has chances (75%) of temperatures reaching
below 32 degrees across higher terrain of the western Adirondacks
and for western New England. Elsewhere, probabilities are greater
than 75 percent for lows to reach less than 40 degrees. Crisp autumn
mornings could be observed through at least Friday this week with
lows in the upper 30s and low 40s. For high temperatures, low 50s to
low 60s could be observed Wednesday through Friday as probabilities
are greater than 75 percent for high temperatures to reach less than
65 degrees through the end of the work week. A warmer day could be
in store for Saturday with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s for
valleys.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
We start the TAF period with a variety of conditions due to fog and
clear skies. Between 12z and 14z, fog begins to diminish for KPOU,
KPSF, and KGFL with conditions improving back to VFR. After 07/06z,
rain shower activity increases from west to east across eastern New
York into western New England where conditions could be a mix of
MVFR to LIFR due to low ceilings and low visibilities with heavier
bands of rain. Kept mention of shower activity in PROB30 groups for
KALB, KPOU, and KPSF as timing of onset of shower activity is still
uncertain for these airfields. Higher confidence for KGFL to include
it in the prevailing group.

Winds continue to remain calm this morning then increase this
afternoon to between 6 and 10 knots.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Webb
AVIATION...Webb