Albany, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

655
FXUS61 KALY 141121
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
621 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The track of the coastal storm that, in recent days, did not
look to bring any precipitation to eastern New York and western
New England late Sunday into early Monday, has shifted slightly
north. This forced an increase in PoPs for the Sunday night in
both spatial coverage and numerical percentage value. For the
most part, widespread slight chance PoPs (~15-24%) now exist
across the region with a small coverage area of chance (~25-30%)
covering portions of the lower Mid-Hudson Valley and northwest
Connecticut.

Additionally, temperatures have trended warmer during the
prolonged period of unsettled weather for next week. This change
owed to the NBM precipitation type solution of snow and a
rain/snow mix as opposed to a wintry mix. With the preliminary
system in the parade of storms set for next week falling to
Wednesday, Day 5 of this forecast period, there is certainly
still ample time for this to change. But, given the ensemble
majority erring towards warming conditions, it is worth noting
that the probability of at least widespread mixed precipitation
(freezing rain/sleet) is declining.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light snow resulting from a coastal storm, whose track is
beginning to trend northward, could make for isolated slippery
road conditions for the Monday morning commute in portions of the
lower Mid-Hudson Valley and northwest Connecticut.

2) Confidence continues to increase in a prolonged period of
unsettled weather conditions beginning in the early to middle
portion of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

In recent days, a coastal storm has been mentioned for its lack
of impact on our region due to its track being suppressed
southward by the disconnect between its southern stream parent
flow and a shortwave embedded in the northern stream that
looked to eject out of southeast Canada ahead of it. While
impacts are anticipated to be very minimal, it is worth noting
that latest guidance has indicated a more northerly track of the
coastal storm such that portions of eastern New York and western
New England experience resulting light snow showers.

The difference with the latest solutions in comparison to those
of days previous has to do with the low that currently lies
overhead in central Quebec. This low, along its southeasterly
track towards the border of Maine and the Canadian Maritimes,
now looks to deepen more significantly, translating to a surface
cyclogenesis response by Sunday morning. The persistence of this
strengthening trend into Sunday afternoon will result in the
slower progression of the aforementioned northern stream
shortwave as it traverses Ontario and deepens slightly itself.
This solution promotes the phasing of the northern and southern
streams as the southern stream upper-low weakens into an open
wave Sunday evening simultaneous to the deepening of the wave in
the northern stream. The result of this connection would result
in deepening the surface cyclone associated with the southern
stream, especially as it exits the East Coast near the
Carolinas. This connection would also steer the low at least
farther northward and potentially closer to the coast depending
on the exact phase timing. That said, the farther-northward
track of the low would at least increase the probability of
precipitation for areas south of the Capital District,
particularly portions of the lower Mid-Hudson Valley and
northwest Connecticut Sunday night. PoPs were therefore
increased for snow showers Sunday night, though remain low at
this time, maxing out at slight chance and chance. Depending on
timing, this could make the morning commute Monday slippery in
isolated places with less than an inch of accumulation expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

After a relatively tranquil start to next week, we enter what
will likely be a fairly active pattern. Guidance continues to
indicate the development of a zonal flow pattern over the
Northeast as numerous northern stream shortwaves shunt a broad
ridge to the south. A west to east/potentially northwest to
southeast baroclinic zone looks to become established across
the region beginning Wednesday as a result as a low pressure
system deepens in the upper Midwest. Cold air ahead of the
boundary followed closely by warm air advection behind it could
make for a messy precipitation combination, though the types are
highly dependent on the orientation and position of the
baroclinic zone.

The latest LREF clusters indicate that ~54% of ensemble members
are favoring 500mb heights that are higher than the grand
ensemble. Should this be realized, warmer conditions would be
expected which would translate to more of a snow and rain/snow
mix Wednesday across the region. Should the cooler solution be
realized, or the solution favored by ~46% of ensemble members
wherein 500mb heights are lower than the grand ensemble, the
potential for more of a wintry mix, including freezing rain,
increases.

Additional shortwaves and associated surface lows will track
through the region towards the end of next week with guidance
hinting at additional potential for mixed precipitation. The
great deal of uncertainty at this lead time led to our decision
to not deviate from the NBM which continues to favor rain and
snow or a mix thereof for precipitation type. We will continue
to closely monitor trends and make adjustments as lead time
decreases.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12z Sunday...Solid OVC skies in place, with cigs mainly
at MVFR levels, except VFR at KPOU. Widely scattered -SHSN
expected to develop at KALB/KGFL/KPSF between 13z-17z due to a
weak front moving across the area again with mainly MVFR
conditions. The -SHSN will likely be more persistent at KPSF,
possibly into the afternoon due to westerly upslope flow, with
prevailing MVFR cigs occasionally IFR vsby there. Cigs will
likely rise to VFR levels during the afternoon, except early
evening at KPSF. Winds will initially be southerly around 5 kt
or less, becoming west-northwest this afternoon and increasing
to 5-10 kt with gusts around 15 kt at times.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN.
Washingtons Birthday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA...SN.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA...SN.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...07